Beijing, May 19 morning news, due to the rapid burning of Nokia (Weibo), leading market analysts worried that the company may run out of cash reserves within two years.
Default Risk
Due to the high cost of debt, the most pessimistic analysts even believe that if Nokia does not reduce the rate of burning money, there may even be a risk of debt default.
Over the past five quarters, this once-incompetent mobile phone giant has spent 2.1 billion euros (about 2.7 billion US dollars) in cash-according to this calculation, its entire 4.9 billion euros of cash reserves will be spent in two years. Analysts on average expect that Nokia will spend about 2 billion euros in cash in the next three quarters. The most pessimistic analysts even believe that the company will completely run out of $ 4.9 billion in cash next year.
Juliano Torii, a credit analyst with Société Générale, said: "We think there is a problem with the company's ability to repay short-term bonds due in 2014.
Nokia ’s cash reserves in 2007 exceeded 10 billion euros. The company currently has two outstanding bonds, which are 1.25 billion euros due in 2014 and 500 million euros due in 2019, with coupon rates of 5.5% and 6.75%.
Fitch and Standard & Poor's have rated Nokia's two bonds as "junk", which are 400 basis points and 683 basis points higher than the midpoint of the swap rate, respectively, and may continue to expand in the future. "This spread does not reflect the seriousness of the company's situation." Tori said. In order to prevent default, the transaction price of these two bonds will rise further.
According to data from financial information services company Markit, Nokia ’s five-year credit default swap reached a record high of 749 basis points on Friday, and the lowest point in the year at the end of January was 309 basis points, a 142% increase. Gavan Nolan, director of credit research at Markit, said that this shows that Nokia has a 49% probability of default in the next five years.
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