"Not high, but very high." Faced with the "standard conditions for automotive power battery industry" (2017) (draft for comments) to increase the threshold of lithium-ion power battery unit production capacity to 40 times in the past, a power battery The executives of leading companies commented on this.
On November 22nd, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed the "Regulations on the Standards of the Automotive Power Battery Industry" (2017) (Draft for Comment) (referred to as the "Draft for Comment"), which can be used to store power in the vehicle. Recharged devices that provide energy for driving vehicles, including lithium-ion power batteries, metal hydride nickel power batteries, and supercapacitors, excluding lead-acid batteries.
The draft for comments has raised the threshold for the capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells. According to Article 8 of the Consultation Draft, “The annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells is not less than 8 billion watt-hours, and the annual production capacity of metal hydride nickel battery cells is not less than 100 million watt-hours. The annual production capacity of the enterprise is not less than 10 GWh. The annual production capacity of the system enterprise is not less than 80,000 sets or 4 billion watt-hours. It produces various types of power battery unit enterprises and system enterprises, and their annual production capacity needs to be separately Meet the above requirements." Previously, the annual production capacity threshold for lithium-ion power battery cells was set at 200 million watt-hours.
"The threshold has been raised to 40 times. The 8 billion watt-hours means more than 10 billion yuan in output value," said the company executives.
After the threshold is raised, there are only a handful of power battery companies that can reach the standard in China. Some insiders pointed out: "The power companies with a production capacity of 8 billion watt-hours in 2016 are only BYD and Ningde era." According to a research report by Soochow Securities, (BYD) has built a 10 billion watt-hour power battery in 2015 ( The annual production capacity is expected to have a capacity of 16 billion watt-hours per year in 2016 and a planned power battery (year) capacity of 34 billion watt-hours in 2019. Fang Jianhua, director of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and general manager of Hefei Guoxuan Gaoke Power Energy Co., Ltd. said: "This year our annual production capacity is about 6 billion watt-hours, and we can reach 8 billion watt-hours next year. Our annual production capacity ranks third in China. ""
Although the power battery companies are stunned by the draft for comments, some observers regard it as a positive: "There should be no such power battery companies to make money, the past threshold is too low." There are two reasons for it: one Although the power battery industry will accelerate the reshuffle in the short term, the strong will stand out. After raising the threshold, the situation of survival of the fittest and good money will be expelled from bad money. The overall overcapacity of power battery and the average shipment of enterprises will be reversed. Previously, Wang Cheng, deputy director of China Automotive Research Institute, said: "From the perspective of power battery shipments and capacity comparison, the power battery has an overall overcapacity. In the first 10 months of this year, China's new energy vehicle power battery package totaled 14.2 billion watt-hours. However, the first four batches (into) of the battery catalogue (power battery) have a total production capacity of 37 billion watt-hours, and the top ten companies have a total capacity of 17.5 billion watt-hours." In fact, before the draft for comment, the market has already The shuffling program is automatically started. According to Wang Cheng, from the structural point of view, the power battery supply chain structure is moving toward high-end: leading enterprises such as BYD and Ningde era are basically full-fledged, and even super-capacity production, while the capacity utilization rate of SMEs is obviously insufficient. Looking forward to next year, the situation of high quality scarcity and low-end surplus will coexist.
Second, the dual promotion of the policy hand and the market hand is conducive to accelerating the progress of the scale effect of China's power battery, thereby reducing costs earlier. China has set a timetable for increasing the energy density of power batteries and hopes to reduce the cost of power batteries at the same time. China Electric Vehicles 100 people predicted in the research report that after the upgrade of China's lithium-ion battery technology, the energy density of the new lithium-ion battery cells will more than double in 2020, reaching 350Wh/Kg, and the cost will be reduced by 50% to 0.6 yuan / Wh; the energy density of the battery system is doubled to 250Wh/Kg, and the cost is doubled to 1.0 yuan/Wh. Since power batteries account for 30% to 50% of the cost of new energy vehicles, as the cost of power batteries declines, the price of new energy vehicles is expected to drop sharply, thereby narrowing the price difference with traditional vehicles, which is conducive to new energy vehicles moving to private vehicles. market.
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