Coal linkage should not start?

The "Guide to Deepening the Reform of Coal-fired Power Markets" issued by the General Office of the State Council at the end of 2012 (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") stipulates that "continue to implement and continuously improve coal price linkage mechanism when fluctuations in coal prices occur. In the case of more than 5%, the annual on-grid tariffs will be adjusted accordingly, and the proportion of fluctuations in the consumption of coal prices by power companies will be adjusted from 30% to 10%."

At present, there are still more than two months of the one-year price adjustment cycle from the time when the “Opinions” were issued. The parties still have great controversy over whether to lower the price of electricity. Those who support lowering the price of electricity believe that the reduction in electricity price will help reduce the production cost of enterprises, increase the market competitiveness of products and the profitability of enterprises, and further promote the recovery of the economy. Those who oppose the reduction of electricity prices believe that the reduction in electricity prices may help boost the development of high-energy-consuming industries, which is not conducive to energy-saving and emission-reduction, may affect the enthusiasm of power generation companies for environmental protection, and are not conducive to atmospheric pollution prevention and so on. Opponents believe that before the long-term rise in coal prices, power generation companies suffered a long period of high costs, which led to continuous rise in asset-liability ratios, business operations difficulties, and now coal prices have fallen, should let power generation companies have a good day more than a few days Make up for the loss before.

In the end should not start the coal-fired linkage, cut the price? The author personally believes that since the new coal-electricity linkage mechanism has been formulated, the current tariff reduction will not cause significant negative impact on economic and social development. In order to safeguard the seriousness of the mechanism and the credibility of the policy, when the coal-electricity linkage window opens, The tariff should be adjusted in accordance with the established rules.

If you start coal-fired linkage, how much lower electricity prices need to be adjusted? Personally, this mainly depends on the decline in coal prices. Since the “Opinions” were issued, the reduction in the price of electricity coal has already exceeded 5%. As of September 30, the Taiyuan thermal coal transaction price index fell by 21.3%, and the thermal coal price on the 5500 kcal sample decreased by 82 yuan, a decrease of 15.4%; as of September 25, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim The cumulative decline of 103 yuan, a decrease of 16.2%; as of September 30, the Guangzhou Port No. 1 Shenji library prices have decreased by 90 yuan, a decrease of 12.3%; as of early September, Nantong Huaneng 5800 kcal Datong Coal, Yangzhou two The price of electricity to 5,500 kau kamen coal to the factory decreased by 85 yuan and 95 yuan, respectively, a decrease of 11.7% and 13.9%.

On September 25th, the new standards for additional renewable energy tariffs and the denitrification and dust removal compensation standards have already been implemented. Before the National Day, news of local coal prices for coal-fired power generation has also been lowered. The price of coal fell by more than 5%, and in order to solve the problem of increasing the sources of renewable energy tariffs, denitrification, dust removal, and other environmental protection electricity price adjustment funds, the on-grid electricity price of thermal power was gradually reduced. Although the NDRC emphasized that this adjustment of electricity price is only a structural adjustment, not coal-fired electricity linkage, but after all, the coal-fired on-grid tariffs have been lowered to varying degrees. Is the annual coal-electricity linkage still needed to be implemented? The author personally believes that whether or not to implement coal-fired linkage depends on whether the extent of on-grid tariff cuts has reached the coal-fired linkage standard. If coal-fired linkage standards have not yet been met, coal-fired on-grid tariffs need to be adjusted again when coal-fired linkage windows are opened. .

It is not difficult to see from the previous group of coal price data that since the end of last year, whether it is the price of the main producing area, or the price of the transit port, or the price of the power plant user to the factory price, the decline has been more than 80 yuan, and the decline rate is more than 10%. According to the new coal price linkage regulations, power generation companies absorb 10% of coal price fluctuations. According to this standard, when the price of coal drops by 80 yuan or 10%, how much does the price of electricity need to be lowered? Let's simply measure it.

Method one: Profit compensation for coal price changes. According to the calculation of a coal price drop of 80 yuan, if the power plant consumes 10%, then the downward adjustment of the electricity price needs to offset the profit that the coal price drops by 72 yuan. In 2012, the national coal consumption rate for power supply was 321 grams of standard coal/kWh, and the electricity rate for thermal power plants was 6%. Based on this, the coal-fired power generation rate was estimated to be 302 grams of standard coal/kWh and 5,500 kcal of thermal coal. For example, the new revenue generated by the 72 yuan decrease in coal prices for thermal power companies is equivalent to 2.77 points/kWh increase in electricity prices. In other words, in accordance with the calculation method of the change in the profit of coal prices, up until now, if the coal-fired power companies with coal-fired linkages start, the on-grid electricity price will need to drop by 2.77 points per kilowatt-hour.

Method 2: Electricity price, coal price adjustment method. With a 10% drop in coal prices, if the power company also absorbs 10% of the coal price volatility, it should drop by 9%. Taking into account that the cost of coal-fired power generation companies accounts for about 70% of the total cost, for fair consideration, other parts of the electricity price other than the cost of coal are not adjusted. In other words, the base price for electricity price reduction should be 70% of the current electricity price, the coal price should be reduced by 10%, and the electricity price should be reduced by 70% of the on-grid tariff. At present, coal-fired units in Shanxi and Zhejiang provinces do not contain desulfurization and denitrification benchmarks. The on-grid tariffs are 0.3707 yuan/kWh and 0.467 yuan/kWh respectively, and 70% of the on-grid tariffs are respectively 0.2595 yuan/kWh and 0.3269 yuan/kWh. 9% of this part of the on-grid tariff was 2.34 points/kWh and 2.94 points/kWh respectively. Therefore, if the coal-fired linkage is started and the coal price is reduced by 10%, the coal-fired units in Shanxi and Zhejiang provinces do not contain desulfurization and denitrification benchmarks. The on-grid tariffs should drop by 2.34 points and 2.94 points per kilowatt-hour respectively.

Through the above analysis, it is easy to see that the rumors in the provinces of coal-fired power generation on-grid tariff cuts are lower than the start of coal-fired linkage prices should be reduced after the amount of the line. Therefore, when the coal and electricity linkage window is opened, if the coal price is still at the current level, the on-grid electricity price for coal-fired power generation will need to be adjusted again, and the sales price will need to be adjusted downwards. Combining the explicit price adjustment standards of the coal-electricity linkage mechanism and the downward adjustment of on-grid electricity prices around the time, the on-grid electricity price in many regions should be lowered by more than one point again. At that time, combined with the on-grid electricity prices of various power sources and their proportions, the sales price should also be lowered appropriately.