According to the latest research report released by French market research company Yole Developpement, the demand for LED backlight LCD TVs is not as good as expected, but sapphire substrate suppliers are expected to increase production capacity due to the expected popularity of LED TV. (2011) The market for sapphire substrates in the summer has rapidly changed from a severe supply shortage last year to a balance between supply and demand. This has also led to a rapid decline in sapphire wafer prices, and has now returned to the pre-shock price. Yole expects that while demand for sapphire substrates will rise at the end of this year and early next year, the capacity of newcomers is expected to keep the price of 2-inch substrates at historically low levels.
The agency pointed out that the shortage of sapphire substrates in the past year and the beginning of this year has made many players eager to try. Over 50 companies have announced that they have entered the field in the past 18 months, resulting in more than 100% of competitors in the market, including more than 40%. Located in mainland China.
In the medium term, the capacity plans announced by these newcomers will bring nearly three times the demand for sapphire substrates. However, Yole believes that this situation should not be possible in reality, mainly because most newcomers have little experience in sapphire crystal growth and silicon wafer fabrication. Although many long-form equipment suppliers offer turn-key solutions that reduce barriers to entry, high-quality, high-yield sapphire crystal technology still requires a lot of expertise, for all inexperienced operators. It is a big challenge.
According to Yole's calculations, the cost of producing 2 inch sapphire substrates for many new starters is between $6 and $10 per millimeter. At current market prices, these manufacturers are already at a loss. At the same time, advanced manufacturers with high yields, high throughput and excellent product portfolios (such as large-size wafers) can reduce production costs to less than $5, so they can make a profit and suffer. In the medium term, Yole believes that this situation will eliminate the weakest competitors and allow many potential competitors to decide to withdraw.
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