Blind expansion in the overheating of overcapacity in household appliances?

In the first 10 years of the 21st century, the home appliances industry showed a prosperous attitude, especially in recent years. With the stimulation of incentive policies, home appliance companies have expanded their production capacity. However, just after entering the second 10 years, it was blown to the cold, so many companies have to join the tide of layoffs. In this regard, some experts commented that this phenomenon can only show that the overall level of development of China's home appliance industry is still at a relatively low level. At the same time, simply using the industry’s output value to determine the merits of an industry’s development is out of date.

The blind expansion led to overcapacity. After 10 years of accession to the WTO, China's home appliance market entered the threshold of trillions of yuan in less than 200 billion yuan at the beginning of its accession to the WTO. In recent years, in particular, benefit from the impact of various home appliance market incentive policies, domestic sales of home appliances have increased significantly.

According to statistics from Ovid Consulting, in 2007, before the implementation of the home appliances to rural areas policy, the total domestic sales of refrigerators were 22.56 million units. After the implementation of the home appliances to rural areas policy, in 2008, it was raised to 24.47 million units. By 2010, it has reached 41.06 million units, a significant increase. In addition, due to the influence of home appliances to the countryside, the increment of washing machines and air conditioners is also great. In 2007, the sales volume of washing machines nationwide was 23.66 million units. By 2010, it had grown to 30.74 million units. Affected by the level of consumer demand, air-conditioning has become the latest product to benefit from home appliances to the countryside. In 2009, total air-conditioning sales nationwide was 29.79 million units, but just one year later, in 2010, it jumped to 42.25 million units.

The reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that since June 2009, the central government has allocated 11.54 billion yuan to support the promotion of more than 34 million sets of energy-efficient air conditioners, which has directly stimulated consumption by more than 70 billion yuan. According to Shen Danyang, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, sales of home appliances to the countryside in 2011 exceeded 103 million units, achieving sales of 264.1 billion yuan. A total of 92.48 million new home appliances were sold in the country's five categories of home appliances, and 324 billion yuan was directly consumed.

Stimulated by the sharp increase in sales, capacity expansion has become the key word for each company's development. The reporter saw the slogan written in a huge font on the wall of an air-conditioning plant: "Speed, speed, or speed." Take the refrigerator as an example, Hu Xiaohong, head of the Information Department of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, said that as of the end of 2010, China's refrigerator year With a production capacity of more than 100 million units, plus the latest and future capacity, the excess capacity of refrigerators is certain.

According to Han Wei, director of Ovid Consulting's White Electric Research Center, in 2010, the total volume of domestic air conditioners for domestic sales plus exports was about 100 million units, but the actual production capacity reached more than 150 million units. According to the company's deduction data, in the 2012 freeze year, the domestic air-conditioning market growth rate will fall from more than 30% in the previous two years to less than 10%, and the probability of the growth rate falling or even negative growth is very high.

The impact of consumption can not be underestimated For the above situation, the Secretary-General of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association Xu Dongsheng believes that the external environment of hot and cold will affect people's mentality, in the boom in the rapid development of the market, entrepreneurs are likely to have a feverish mind and invest heavily. However, market development has its own laws and excessive development will inevitably lack sustainability.

Liu Fuzhong, former vice chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, also pointed out that the government's market incentive policy can only be used as a “strength agent” for industrial development, but it cannot solve the problem of sustainable development of the industry. Behind the booming industrial development, many problems are hidden, and the relevant industrial policies and development methods need to be adjusted. For example, the integrity system of the industry and the market needs to be further established. There are also many problems to be solved in the treatment of used household appliances.

Cai Ying, Assistant Director of the Resource Development Department of the State Information Center, admitted that the main reasons for this phenomenon are the environment, the planning of the industry's competent authorities, the media's overheating, and the misjudgment of individual investigative agencies. The illusion of the atmosphere, in fact, this phenomenon exists in the automotive, real estate and other industries, the impact of traditional inertia in a short period of time is difficult to overcome. The second is the impetuous mentality of the industry and production companies themselves. At the industry level, the competent department hopes that its industry can become an important sector in the national economy and needs to use the scale in exchange for the right to speak. At the enterprise level, in order to save face, preserve the attention and visibility, and know that there is potential risk, it must be invested. The key is risk. The consequences may be much smaller than those that do not follow up.

Cai Ying believes that the occurrence of this phenomenon can only show that the current overall development of the home appliance industry is still at a relatively low level. It is difficult for the industry’s competent authorities or production companies to get rid of external interference and influence. In order to accurately judge the talents of the world economy and domestic economic changes, the level of research and development of the enterprise development strategy needs to be improved. Cai Ying pointed out: "The method of judging the merits of an industry with the output value of the industry is out of date. Overcapacity and low investment efficiency will result in insufficient development potential for the industry. In addition, the increase in inventories, the decrease in liquidity, and the increase in labor disputes caused by layoffs will inevitably result in withdrawal of funds. Abnormal price competition, the benefits decline."

Enterprises overestimate the market capacity will not only result in excess capacity, leading to unreasonable resource allocation, and the rapid expansion of the market in the short term. Enterprises can hardly keep up with product quality control and after-sales service protection. Once problems arise, they will affect consumers. The desire to buy and the degree of trust in the brand. As consumers, once they understand the law of market volatility, they will not buy or go up. Once the mindset of holding a coin is ready, the overall market will be difficult to recover in the short term, and it will be difficult to quickly adjust the policy adjustment.

Enterprises should develop in innovation "Excessive development will not only cause pressure on the company, but also hidden in many aspects such as talents and funds. Therefore, when the company exceeds 30% increase, it should be vigilant." Xu Dongsheng said that the healthy and healthy Development is the way to sustainable development. After the relevant incentive policies are withdrawn, it is expected that the development of China's home appliance industry will return to normal this year. In this regard, all sectors of society should maintain a normal state of mind. It should be noted that the fundamental factors supporting the development of the home appliance industry have not undergone qualitative changes, and the upgrading of the industrial structure will surely become the driving force behind the growth of the industry this year. To benefit from management and innovation is a sound development path.

Experts once pointed out: Simple is better than complicated. Consumers are not buying platforms, standards, or even what the companies call strategies. What consumers want is just products that can make them feel enchanted, just as Apple’s way of winning comes from grasping customer experience. A survey of product consumption shows that more consumers tend to choose products based on consumer demand. This shows that consumer choice is becoming more rational.

Cai Ying believes that in the face of increasingly fierce market competition and increasingly rational consumers, enterprises should continue to tap the "excitements" of the market, and on the basis of fully understanding consumer demand, lead the consumer demand through continuous technological innovation. upgrade. "Everyone's consumer demand is not the same. Enterprises cannot use an innovation to satisfy all consumer demand. Social progress has brought about an increase in the consumption structure, and this kind of improvement is still ongoing, and corporate research and development have to keep up with this. This kind of demand and structure has improved.” He pointed out that companies should solve problems for consumers in a timely and reasonable manner. Consumers’ problems are exactly the subject of corporate innovation.

● Related Links 2012 Home Appliance Industry Still Has Good Potential for Home Solar Energy Expected to Be Supported by Policy Xu Dongsheng, secretary-general of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, believes that there are still many positive factors supporting the development of the household appliance industry in 2012: First, the rigid demand for home appliances still grows, and the process of urbanization is further advanced. Acceleration has led to an increase in the urban population, which inevitably drives demand growth. At the same time, the renewal period of home appliance products for about 10 years has made the update a stable growth point, which also provides an opportunity for upgrading the home appliance industry. Secondly, real estate market price adjustment is expected to break the deadlock, and once the rigid purchasing power that is temporarily inhibited and accumulated is released, it will be released. It will surely boost consumer electronics consumption. Second, the government's real estate policy is a direct factor in the downturn in home appliance sales. However, the government has also introduced a protective housing policy in addition to the commodity housing purchase policy. In 2012, the first batch of affordable housing began to be built. Will be delivered one after another, will greatly ease the pressure caused by policy-induced demand. According to reports, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has stated that it plans to pilot rental of public rental units and household appliances, and in addition to gas stoves and other kitchen appliances, refrigerators, color TVs and other large appliances will also be the basic configuration of public rental housing. If the plan is implemented, it will not only provide great convenience to public rental tenants, but also a major advantage for the home appliance industry. In addition, the reduction of inflation, the drop in raw material prices, and the slowing rate of increase in labor costs all contribute to the further development of home appliances.

Shen Danyang, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, also said that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2011 has fallen by 2.1% from the average of the growth rate in the past 10 years. A series of incentive policies that promote consumption have played an important role. "This year and in the later period, the commerce department will continue to vigorously promote consumption." Shen Danyang revealed that the Ministry of Commerce is studying and analyzing related departments and is preparing to introduce a new consumer policy. The initial idea is to strive for financial support policies at all levels Expenditure can be invested more in public welfare circulation and green consumption that benefit people's livelihood. For example, in the past there were home appliances to the countryside, old-for-new policies and other policies. The next step was to issue fiscal incentive policies for sales of household solar products, which would not only be conducive to promoting consumption but also conducive to the development of green environmental protection industries. Shen Danyang said: "At present, several of our departments are hurrying to study new policies. The Ministry of Commerce will reach an agreement with these departments as soon as possible to reach an agreement and submit it to the State Council for approval. Once it is set, it will be announced as soon as possible."

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