Because of its high-tech advantages, Japan holds the most upstream products and core technologies in many areas, especially the electronics industry. In contrast, many parts of the world are only supporting Japan. Therefore, although this large earthquake occurred in Japan where the land area is less than 4% of China, the impact has spread to various regions of the world.
The impact of the earthquake on Japan’s economy and industry can be described as a whole. Although Japan's industrial transfer is very large, it is not what we have imagined as "industrial hollowness." Japanese companies have always kept their core technology and profits in their hands, and only low-value-added parts have been removed.
For example, for the electronics industry, due to the suspension of some of the chip giants such as Toshiba, it is very likely that the agency companies will find it difficult to get goods, which will increase global chip prices. For the steel industry, due to the concentration of high-grade steel in Japan, the earthquake may Influencing the export of high-end automobile plates in Japan to other markets.
Japan’s sophisticated layout in industrial planning has many things to learn and learn from the Chinese industries and companies that are in structural adjustment.
Toshiba, Sony and other electronics companies will decline in production capacity, memory chip prices are not expected to be expected in 1999 after the "9.12" earthquake in China's Taiwan, the global IT, especially the PC industry chain once paralyzed. Did Japan's 100-year-old earthquake two days ago trigger similar effects? It should be noted that Japan has always been a key electronic component of the global electronics industry and a leading consumer electronics center, occupying an important position in the semiconductor, flat panel industry, television and digital electronics.
The price of memory chips or the shock caused by the skyrocketing earthquake is inevitable. At present, Japanese companies such as Toshiba, Sony, Panasonic, and Sharp have all disclosed their initial disasters.
The global memory market may fluctuate. Toshiba announced on the 11th that due to the earthquake, the company closed its flash memory chip factory in Yokkaichi, Mie Prefecture. A plant in its Iwate Prefecture also suffered power outages or equipment damage that could result in disrupted deliveries. Toshiba officials said that the logistics system will also affect product shipments. In December last year, the company’s NAND plant also suffered from supply disruptions due to power outages. At the time, Toshiba warned that production capacity could drop by 20% in the next two months.
Toshiba is the world's largest NAND flash memory after Samsung Electronics, and its global market share is about 1/3.
Yesterday morning, Toshiba said that after inspection, the factory “has not been greatly affected.†It has now resumed operation, but it is frank that transportation and logistics will have some impact.
However, Toshiba’s joint venture partner SanDisk’s spokesperson revealed that Toshiba’s rejection is not complete. The source said that the company will lose some chips, but the production facilities have resumed operation.
IHS iSuppli said that in 2010 Japan’s chip company’s revenue was approximately US$63.8 billion, accounting for approximately one-fifth of the global semiconductor market. They have an important influence in the NAND flash memory market, and NAND flash memory is at the core of products such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone and iPad. Japanese companies headed by Toshiba account for about 35% of global flash revenue.
Yu Jie, general manager of Qingmuhua Technology Co., Ltd., said in a microblog that Toshiba's NAND factory and CMOS sensor plant are located in Iwate and Miyagi prefectures that have the most severe impact on the earthquake, which may drive up the price of memory chips.
Gartner analyst Andrew Norwood also said that the earthquake and tsunami will not have long-term impact, but any uncertain status will have an overreaction in the spot market.
Analysts are not intentionally rendering crises. At present, the rising prices of memory chips are rapidly spreading. However, a memory card and USB flash drive on the first floor of the Electronic Plaza in Shanghai Minjiang Road is frank with the “First Financial Dailyâ€, and the licensed channels may be more concerned, and he will not raise prices here.
Sony’s largest Nokia spokesperson Tomi Kuuppelomaki stated that the company is evaluating the impact of the earthquake on the supply of key components. The main supplier of memory is Toshiba’s apple. There is no comment yet.
In addition to memory, the global flat panel display industry may also be affected. After the earthquake, Sharp, the panel giant, stopped working at a factory in the city. Panasonic and Sanyo said that operations have suffered some damage. Sharp and Panasonic are the world's strongest companies in the liquid crystal and plasma fields, which may affect the confidence of their downstream markets.
However, since Sharp's core production base is located in the south-central part of Japan, which is far from the epicenter, the impact may be limited.
Sony is likely to become the most damaged Japanese electronics giant in the earthquake. Its factory is mainly located in the northeast of Japan, and is close to the epicenter. After the earthquake, the company closed six factories. Most business activities in the Japanese market are suspended and the loss is currently being assessed. The reporters inquired that 6 factories are located in Fukushima Prefecture and 4 in Miyagi Prefecture. They mainly produce Blu-ray discs, players, magnetic heads, batteries and semiconductor products.
Sony is a global digital electronics giant and a well-known brand in TVs, notebooks and other fields. The Japan Broadcasting Association Television reported yesterday that the tsunami triggered by the earthquake washed away at least 120,000 PS3s and 5,600 XBOX360s.
Other indirect losses may be even greater. Similarly, as an important memory chip production base in the world, the earthquake will have a positive impact on IT companies in South Korea and Taiwan. Among them, the overall strength of Samsung and Hynix ranks among the top two in South Korea, while in Taiwan, there are two powerful companies, Powerchip and Maude. When Toshiba announced the closure of a factory, Samsung promptly stated that the company had not been affected. Microsoft and Nintendo may use Sony to increase the shipment of game consoles, and the panel industry in South Korea and Taiwan may also expect to see more opportunities for Sharp to be trapped.
Transfer to emerging markets?
Mark Harding, an analyst at the US investment bank Maxim Group, said that the earthquake will only have a slight negative impact at the beginning, but the longer the duration, the greater the negative impact.
This may cause panic and spread to other areas. In 2008, after the earthquake in Wenchuan, Sichuan, the prices of memory in Shenzhen and other places fluctuate violently. After the “9.12†earthquake in Taiwan in 1999, the price of 64MB memory on the Zhongguancun electronics market in Beijing jumped from 600 yuan to 1,400 yuan.
James, an industry analyst and research vice president at TechAmerica Foundation, said that the global technology supply chain will be severely damaged. Even if no factory is destroyed or damaged, the end product will inflow into the United States, Singapore, China, or other places where it can be assembled. Affect the industrial layout.
Japan's IT industry chain has been hit by earthquakes almost every few years. The earthquake may be the driving force behind the rapid shift of Japanese IT core manufacturing to emerging markets such as China. Previously, Sharp has announced that it is willing to establish a 8th generation panel plant in Nanjing and is currently planning to establish a solar plant in Chengdu.
However, Toyota’s president, Mr. Toyoda’s remarks in December last year may reveal the psychology of Japanese industrialists. He said that although factors such as market size, labor costs, and exchange rates have caused Japan's manufacturing to theoretically exceed its profit limit, the company will still maintain its manufacturing in Japan. He said that there must be a sense of mission that "can't let manufacturing disappear from Japan."
The oversupply situation is expected to ease the impact of the LCD panel industry. "On the day of the earthquake in Japan, we were in the process of opening a video conference with our colleagues at the Tokyo headquarters. At that time, it was clear that the Tokyo conference room was shaking. Afterwards, the video was gone, but the phone could not be reached. Yesterday, Sony China’s middle level told the “First Financial Daily†that the Sendai and Fukushima areas near the earthquake center are a gathering place for Japanese semiconductor manufacturing plants and that the impact is relatively large, so Sony’s six factories in the above places. Are closed.
A R&D executive from Japan's Matsushita plasma display company, who often goes to Japan, pointed out that the Japanese company headquartered in Tokyo has been affected a lot, such as Asahi Glass and Sony. However, Panasonic Plasma Factory and Sharp's 10th-generation panel plant are all located in Osaka, which is far from the earthquake center, so the impact should not be too great.
“Asahi Glass is one of the three major manufacturers of glass substrates for LCD panels in the world and should influence the LCD panel market in the short term.†A high-level TV manufacturer in Shenzhen said that the main task of the Japanese government and companies is to rescue and restore order, so in the short term Products from Japan will have some logistics problems, which will directly affect Sharp's supply of medium-sized LCD panels.
"Because the supply of LCD panels in the last two quarters is just a bit surplus, the overall impact of the Japanese earthquake will not have any impact on the LCD TV market."
At the end of January, the newspaper reported that due to oversupply of LCD panels, LCD panel giants did not hesitate to grab market share at the expense of their profit margins. LCD panel giants including Samsung have begun to plan to increase their internal cell model shipments.
In addition, because Japan is the main gathering place for global LCD panel raw materials and equipment, the industry is also worried that the Japanese earthquake will slow down the progress of TCL's 8.5-generation panel project in Shenzhen and the supporting projects of Asahi Glass in Shenzhen.
“Asahi Glass’s Shenzhen project was only grounded last week and it was far from moving the equipment, so the entire project will have no impact.†The person in charge of the TCL Group told the newspaper yesterday that the main equipment of the 8.5 generation had already been in place before the Spring Festival. Entering the customs clearance, the installation will start in April and the entire project is still accelerating in accordance with the original plan.
Zhang Liangyong, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, pointed out that the Japanese manufacturers of glass substrates generally have higher shock resistance, and even if short-term shipments are affected, they will be able to recover in a short period of time.
Holding the core technology in Japan The earthquake that hit Japan and the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in the global industrial chain “raises†Japan. Some factories have been hit hard. Has this earthquake affected the electronics and steel industries in Japan? What are the impacts on global industries including China? What are the development trends of Japanese companies in the last two to three decades? The "First Financial Daily" interviewed Bai Yimin, a director of the National Society for Japanese Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, by telephone yesterday.
Bai Yimin once wrote "Mitsui Empire in Action" and "Aiming at Japan's Financial Consortium," and has studied Japanese industrial economy. He believes that in addition to controlling core technologies in many areas, Japan also controls the most lucrative links in the industry chain, leaving only the profits of the assembly process for most of the joint ventures in other global markets. This "industry-based" country The economic model is also a place worthy of learning by Chinese companies.
Local company is "geese head"
How severe is the damage to the related industries in Japan? Bai Yimin believes that it is necessary to analyze from two aspects. On the one hand, in the past two or three decades, Japan’s industrial diffusion has spread across the globe, and GNP (Gross National Product) has increased by more than 10% each year. From a financial point of view, it has created a new Japan overseas. . Many of its GDP (gross domestic product) was counted in other countries including China. Although it seems that economic growth has stagnated, this is only an indication. From this point of view, the earthquake that occurred in the region will not have a particularly large impact on the Japanese economy and important industries.
On the other hand, the Japanese consortium constructed the "Geese Form", which means that local companies are the first to acquire the most upstream products and technologies; followed by South Korea and Taiwan, mainly supporting Japanese technology; and finally the mainland is playing a role. The "geese tail" role is assembled for "Made in Japan" and is at the lowest point of the industrial chain. From this perspective, Japan's domestic industries damaged by the earthquake will inevitably spread to the downstream, especially some factories in mainland China.
Therefore, in a comprehensive judgment, the earthquake will not have a fundamental impact on its domestic economy and it will recover quickly.
Bai Yimin, who was involved in the movement, said that Japan is a big producer of electronic products. The earthquake will surely have a greater impact on the global electronics industry. A Toshiba chip factory was suspended due to the earthquake. Unlike the CPU in the computer, Toshiba produced chips for higher-end products such as mobile phones, flash memory, and automotive auto-control systems. If an agency fails to obtain the goods, it will surely stock up on reluctance to sell. The impact on prices depends on the degree of damage to the factory and the progress of recovery. If the factory can quickly resume operation, the price will not rise sharply; if the factory is discontinued for a period of time, then the global chip The price will certainly rise.
Other industries, such as steel, will not have much impact on the global iron ore market because Japan has already concentrated on producing high-grade steel (such as automotive sheet), and a large amount of crude steel is purchased from China. The earthquake may affect the export of Japanese high-end auto sheet to China. In the long-term, Japan's earthquake reconstruction will increase the import of China's crude steel.
For China, Bai Yimin pointed out that the current need to be vigilant is that international hedge funds and capitalists have created public opinion by exaggerating losses and took the opportunity to withdraw funds, which will have a serious impact on the development of the entire Asian-Pacific economy. If Japanese capital is pumped away, The industrial associations in the entire Asia-Pacific region will be greatly affected.
“De-manufacturing†is a false proposition In recent decades, Japanese companies have been expanding outwards and overseas manufacturing bases. Some people think that this is “de-manufacturing.†However, Bai Yimin believes that “de-manufacturing†is a false proposition. Japan has always been an “industry-building country,†and the outward shift of industries has the following features. First, core technologies and profits are in their hands. The U.S. industry is a transfer, but Japan is not. Japanese companies are characterized by commercial networks. For example, several large auto companies have established joint ventures with China. The profits left by Chinese companies are only In the assembly process, the most profitable parts such as components, engines, high-end interior decoration, etc. are firmly controlled by Japanese companies. Japan has always been an “industry-founded country,†which is different from the United States’ “founding of financeâ€.
Second, many joint ventures appear to be manufacturing factories, but in reality they are sales networks built in China and they enter the Chinese market in this way.
Third, China's brand has also been incorporated into the Japanese economy community. For example, Changhong, Haier, and so on, on the surface it is a Chinese brand, but the core components such as monitors are all Japanese, leaving only a brand for China.
At present, China also faces some of the problems Japan encountered in the 1980s, such as the appreciation of its currency, rising labor costs, and an aging population. Bai Yimin believes that Chinese companies must recognize a problem, whether they are industrialized or financially established. Proposing industry-building countries. Many problems that Chinese companies currently face are actually not corporate issues, but financial problems, institutional problems, and the formation of symbiosis between finance and industry, rather than predation. In addition, the two years of talks' The "state-run people's retreat" is more and more, but in fact it should be "state advancement and advancement." In addition to the state-owned economy and the private economy, there should also be a fairly large-scale collective economy. Many large consortia in Japan are collectively-owned economies, and the combination of production and business enterprises. "Internal and foreign warfare." He believes that these are worthy of learning by Chinese companies. The Japanese consortium has played an important role in the expansion of Japanese companies, especially after Japan's accession to the GATT in 1955, through the integration of industry and financial capital. , Consolidating domestic industries into large groups, "inside and out-of-arms warfare," which is a model for late-developed countries to catch up with advanced countries.
The impact of the earthquake on Japan’s economy and industry can be described as a whole. Although Japan's industrial transfer is very large, it is not what we have imagined as "industrial hollowness." Japanese companies have always kept their core technology and profits in their hands, and only low-value-added parts have been removed.
For example, for the electronics industry, due to the suspension of some of the chip giants such as Toshiba, it is very likely that the agency companies will find it difficult to get goods, which will increase global chip prices. For the steel industry, due to the concentration of high-grade steel in Japan, the earthquake may Influencing the export of high-end automobile plates in Japan to other markets.
Japan’s sophisticated layout in industrial planning has many things to learn and learn from the Chinese industries and companies that are in structural adjustment.
Toshiba, Sony and other electronics companies will decline in production capacity, memory chip prices are not expected to be expected in 1999 after the "9.12" earthquake in China's Taiwan, the global IT, especially the PC industry chain once paralyzed. Did Japan's 100-year-old earthquake two days ago trigger similar effects? It should be noted that Japan has always been a key electronic component of the global electronics industry and a leading consumer electronics center, occupying an important position in the semiconductor, flat panel industry, television and digital electronics.
The price of memory chips or the shock caused by the skyrocketing earthquake is inevitable. At present, Japanese companies such as Toshiba, Sony, Panasonic, and Sharp have all disclosed their initial disasters.
The global memory market may fluctuate. Toshiba announced on the 11th that due to the earthquake, the company closed its flash memory chip factory in Yokkaichi, Mie Prefecture. A plant in its Iwate Prefecture also suffered power outages or equipment damage that could result in disrupted deliveries. Toshiba officials said that the logistics system will also affect product shipments. In December last year, the company’s NAND plant also suffered from supply disruptions due to power outages. At the time, Toshiba warned that production capacity could drop by 20% in the next two months.
Toshiba is the world's largest NAND flash memory after Samsung Electronics, and its global market share is about 1/3.
Yesterday morning, Toshiba said that after inspection, the factory “has not been greatly affected.†It has now resumed operation, but it is frank that transportation and logistics will have some impact.
However, Toshiba’s joint venture partner SanDisk’s spokesperson revealed that Toshiba’s rejection is not complete. The source said that the company will lose some chips, but the production facilities have resumed operation.
IHS iSuppli said that in 2010 Japan’s chip company’s revenue was approximately US$63.8 billion, accounting for approximately one-fifth of the global semiconductor market. They have an important influence in the NAND flash memory market, and NAND flash memory is at the core of products such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone and iPad. Japanese companies headed by Toshiba account for about 35% of global flash revenue.
Yu Jie, general manager of Qingmuhua Technology Co., Ltd., said in a microblog that Toshiba's NAND factory and CMOS sensor plant are located in Iwate and Miyagi prefectures that have the most severe impact on the earthquake, which may drive up the price of memory chips.
Gartner analyst Andrew Norwood also said that the earthquake and tsunami will not have long-term impact, but any uncertain status will have an overreaction in the spot market.
Analysts are not intentionally rendering crises. At present, the rising prices of memory chips are rapidly spreading. However, a memory card and USB flash drive on the first floor of the Electronic Plaza in Shanghai Minjiang Road is frank with the “First Financial Dailyâ€, and the licensed channels may be more concerned, and he will not raise prices here.
Sony’s largest Nokia spokesperson Tomi Kuuppelomaki stated that the company is evaluating the impact of the earthquake on the supply of key components. The main supplier of memory is Toshiba’s apple. There is no comment yet.
In addition to memory, the global flat panel display industry may also be affected. After the earthquake, Sharp, the panel giant, stopped working at a factory in the city. Panasonic and Sanyo said that operations have suffered some damage. Sharp and Panasonic are the world's strongest companies in the liquid crystal and plasma fields, which may affect the confidence of their downstream markets.
However, since Sharp's core production base is located in the south-central part of Japan, which is far from the epicenter, the impact may be limited.
Sony is likely to become the most damaged Japanese electronics giant in the earthquake. Its factory is mainly located in the northeast of Japan, and is close to the epicenter. After the earthquake, the company closed six factories. Most business activities in the Japanese market are suspended and the loss is currently being assessed. The reporters inquired that 6 factories are located in Fukushima Prefecture and 4 in Miyagi Prefecture. They mainly produce Blu-ray discs, players, magnetic heads, batteries and semiconductor products.
Sony is a global digital electronics giant and a well-known brand in TVs, notebooks and other fields. The Japan Broadcasting Association Television reported yesterday that the tsunami triggered by the earthquake washed away at least 120,000 PS3s and 5,600 XBOX360s.
Other indirect losses may be even greater. Similarly, as an important memory chip production base in the world, the earthquake will have a positive impact on IT companies in South Korea and Taiwan. Among them, the overall strength of Samsung and Hynix ranks among the top two in South Korea, while in Taiwan, there are two powerful companies, Powerchip and Maude. When Toshiba announced the closure of a factory, Samsung promptly stated that the company had not been affected. Microsoft and Nintendo may use Sony to increase the shipment of game consoles, and the panel industry in South Korea and Taiwan may also expect to see more opportunities for Sharp to be trapped.
Transfer to emerging markets?
Mark Harding, an analyst at the US investment bank Maxim Group, said that the earthquake will only have a slight negative impact at the beginning, but the longer the duration, the greater the negative impact.
This may cause panic and spread to other areas. In 2008, after the earthquake in Wenchuan, Sichuan, the prices of memory in Shenzhen and other places fluctuate violently. After the “9.12†earthquake in Taiwan in 1999, the price of 64MB memory on the Zhongguancun electronics market in Beijing jumped from 600 yuan to 1,400 yuan.
James, an industry analyst and research vice president at TechAmerica Foundation, said that the global technology supply chain will be severely damaged. Even if no factory is destroyed or damaged, the end product will inflow into the United States, Singapore, China, or other places where it can be assembled. Affect the industrial layout.
Japan's IT industry chain has been hit by earthquakes almost every few years. The earthquake may be the driving force behind the rapid shift of Japanese IT core manufacturing to emerging markets such as China. Previously, Sharp has announced that it is willing to establish a 8th generation panel plant in Nanjing and is currently planning to establish a solar plant in Chengdu.
However, Toyota’s president, Mr. Toyoda’s remarks in December last year may reveal the psychology of Japanese industrialists. He said that although factors such as market size, labor costs, and exchange rates have caused Japan's manufacturing to theoretically exceed its profit limit, the company will still maintain its manufacturing in Japan. He said that there must be a sense of mission that "can't let manufacturing disappear from Japan."
The oversupply situation is expected to ease the impact of the LCD panel industry. "On the day of the earthquake in Japan, we were in the process of opening a video conference with our colleagues at the Tokyo headquarters. At that time, it was clear that the Tokyo conference room was shaking. Afterwards, the video was gone, but the phone could not be reached. Yesterday, Sony China’s middle level told the “First Financial Daily†that the Sendai and Fukushima areas near the earthquake center are a gathering place for Japanese semiconductor manufacturing plants and that the impact is relatively large, so Sony’s six factories in the above places. Are closed.
A R&D executive from Japan's Matsushita plasma display company, who often goes to Japan, pointed out that the Japanese company headquartered in Tokyo has been affected a lot, such as Asahi Glass and Sony. However, Panasonic Plasma Factory and Sharp's 10th-generation panel plant are all located in Osaka, which is far from the earthquake center, so the impact should not be too great.
“Asahi Glass is one of the three major manufacturers of glass substrates for LCD panels in the world and should influence the LCD panel market in the short term.†A high-level TV manufacturer in Shenzhen said that the main task of the Japanese government and companies is to rescue and restore order, so in the short term Products from Japan will have some logistics problems, which will directly affect Sharp's supply of medium-sized LCD panels.
"Because the supply of LCD panels in the last two quarters is just a bit surplus, the overall impact of the Japanese earthquake will not have any impact on the LCD TV market."
At the end of January, the newspaper reported that due to oversupply of LCD panels, LCD panel giants did not hesitate to grab market share at the expense of their profit margins. LCD panel giants including Samsung have begun to plan to increase their internal cell model shipments.
In addition, because Japan is the main gathering place for global LCD panel raw materials and equipment, the industry is also worried that the Japanese earthquake will slow down the progress of TCL's 8.5-generation panel project in Shenzhen and the supporting projects of Asahi Glass in Shenzhen.
“Asahi Glass’s Shenzhen project was only grounded last week and it was far from moving the equipment, so the entire project will have no impact.†The person in charge of the TCL Group told the newspaper yesterday that the main equipment of the 8.5 generation had already been in place before the Spring Festival. Entering the customs clearance, the installation will start in April and the entire project is still accelerating in accordance with the original plan.
Zhang Liangyong, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, pointed out that the Japanese manufacturers of glass substrates generally have higher shock resistance, and even if short-term shipments are affected, they will be able to recover in a short period of time.
Holding the core technology in Japan The earthquake that hit Japan and the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in the global industrial chain “raises†Japan. Some factories have been hit hard. Has this earthquake affected the electronics and steel industries in Japan? What are the impacts on global industries including China? What are the development trends of Japanese companies in the last two to three decades? The "First Financial Daily" interviewed Bai Yimin, a director of the National Society for Japanese Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, by telephone yesterday.
Bai Yimin once wrote "Mitsui Empire in Action" and "Aiming at Japan's Financial Consortium," and has studied Japanese industrial economy. He believes that in addition to controlling core technologies in many areas, Japan also controls the most lucrative links in the industry chain, leaving only the profits of the assembly process for most of the joint ventures in other global markets. This "industry-based" country The economic model is also a place worthy of learning by Chinese companies.
Local company is "geese head"
How severe is the damage to the related industries in Japan? Bai Yimin believes that it is necessary to analyze from two aspects. On the one hand, in the past two or three decades, Japan’s industrial diffusion has spread across the globe, and GNP (Gross National Product) has increased by more than 10% each year. From a financial point of view, it has created a new Japan overseas. . Many of its GDP (gross domestic product) was counted in other countries including China. Although it seems that economic growth has stagnated, this is only an indication. From this point of view, the earthquake that occurred in the region will not have a particularly large impact on the Japanese economy and important industries.
On the other hand, the Japanese consortium constructed the "Geese Form", which means that local companies are the first to acquire the most upstream products and technologies; followed by South Korea and Taiwan, mainly supporting Japanese technology; and finally the mainland is playing a role. The "geese tail" role is assembled for "Made in Japan" and is at the lowest point of the industrial chain. From this perspective, Japan's domestic industries damaged by the earthquake will inevitably spread to the downstream, especially some factories in mainland China.
Therefore, in a comprehensive judgment, the earthquake will not have a fundamental impact on its domestic economy and it will recover quickly.
Bai Yimin, who was involved in the movement, said that Japan is a big producer of electronic products. The earthquake will surely have a greater impact on the global electronics industry. A Toshiba chip factory was suspended due to the earthquake. Unlike the CPU in the computer, Toshiba produced chips for higher-end products such as mobile phones, flash memory, and automotive auto-control systems. If an agency fails to obtain the goods, it will surely stock up on reluctance to sell. The impact on prices depends on the degree of damage to the factory and the progress of recovery. If the factory can quickly resume operation, the price will not rise sharply; if the factory is discontinued for a period of time, then the global chip The price will certainly rise.
Other industries, such as steel, will not have much impact on the global iron ore market because Japan has already concentrated on producing high-grade steel (such as automotive sheet), and a large amount of crude steel is purchased from China. The earthquake may affect the export of Japanese high-end auto sheet to China. In the long-term, Japan's earthquake reconstruction will increase the import of China's crude steel.
For China, Bai Yimin pointed out that the current need to be vigilant is that international hedge funds and capitalists have created public opinion by exaggerating losses and took the opportunity to withdraw funds, which will have a serious impact on the development of the entire Asian-Pacific economy. If Japanese capital is pumped away, The industrial associations in the entire Asia-Pacific region will be greatly affected.
“De-manufacturing†is a false proposition In recent decades, Japanese companies have been expanding outwards and overseas manufacturing bases. Some people think that this is “de-manufacturing.†However, Bai Yimin believes that “de-manufacturing†is a false proposition. Japan has always been an “industry-building country,†and the outward shift of industries has the following features. First, core technologies and profits are in their hands. The U.S. industry is a transfer, but Japan is not. Japanese companies are characterized by commercial networks. For example, several large auto companies have established joint ventures with China. The profits left by Chinese companies are only In the assembly process, the most profitable parts such as components, engines, high-end interior decoration, etc. are firmly controlled by Japanese companies. Japan has always been an “industry-founded country,†which is different from the United States’ “founding of financeâ€.
Second, many joint ventures appear to be manufacturing factories, but in reality they are sales networks built in China and they enter the Chinese market in this way.
Third, China's brand has also been incorporated into the Japanese economy community. For example, Changhong, Haier, and so on, on the surface it is a Chinese brand, but the core components such as monitors are all Japanese, leaving only a brand for China.
At present, China also faces some of the problems Japan encountered in the 1980s, such as the appreciation of its currency, rising labor costs, and an aging population. Bai Yimin believes that Chinese companies must recognize a problem, whether they are industrialized or financially established. Proposing industry-building countries. Many problems that Chinese companies currently face are actually not corporate issues, but financial problems, institutional problems, and the formation of symbiosis between finance and industry, rather than predation. In addition, the two years of talks' The "state-run people's retreat" is more and more, but in fact it should be "state advancement and advancement." In addition to the state-owned economy and the private economy, there should also be a fairly large-scale collective economy. Many large consortia in Japan are collectively-owned economies, and the combination of production and business enterprises. "Internal and foreign warfare." He believes that these are worthy of learning by Chinese companies. The Japanese consortium has played an important role in the expansion of Japanese companies, especially after Japan's accession to the GATT in 1955, through the integration of industry and financial capital. , Consolidating domestic industries into large groups, "inside and out-of-arms warfare," which is a model for late-developed countries to catch up with advanced countries.
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