Regarding VR, there have been overwhelming reports. However, as a non-VR practitioner, I still can't solve my doubts. For example, VR can surpass the Internet, but why is it that VR hardware devices are not selling well? For example, VR is popular among Ma Yun, Ma Huateng, Zach Burke, etc. How long does it take for VR to be truly universal? For the VR outside visitors, from the perspective of the relationship to the development of VR, the following information was collected for reference.
How is the VR hardware sold?
Like a smartphone, VR wants to influence the public, and sales must go up.
He Zhitao, chairman of the technology company's contact and interaction, said that high-end VR hardware is not easy to sell at the moment. "Contact Interactive sells a lot of intelligent hardware. Among all our intelligent hardware devices, the worst selling is VR hardware." He Zhitao said frankly that he is not optimistic about the sales of VR. First of all, in terms of price, most users can only accept hardware devices under three hundred yuan, which is prohibitive for thousands of dollars of products. "VR is really hot, people know, but most people stop at the price, 100 people enter the store, less than 3 people will buy."
In the VR layout, the contact interaction will focus on VR devices, VROS and future operations. In 2015, Contact Interactive invested $15 million in Avgant, a US VR equipment manufacturer. In 2016, it invested $75 million in the current largest open source VROS advocate, Razer.
In addition to low conversion rates, the repeat purchase rate is also low. "Most users will not use it after a few purchases. This is very harmful to high-end brands like us. For most users, VR devices are not like smartphones, they are willing to spend thousands of dollars to buy and keep on Update."
He Zhitao revealed that the main channel for contact interaction in the United States is New Egg Network, but it is still not dare to sell online in China. The main reason is that online users have difficulty accepting VR devices with the cheapest price of more than 4,000. "Our VR equipment is more expensive, and the cheapest is more than 4,000. In China, we bought an offline channel from Apple to sell. The most impressed by us is that he has more than 600 stores, each with more than a dozen. The clerk, a person who knows nothing about Apple, enters the store and the clerk can teach them to use the Apple phone."
So how about the VR head-mounted device with a price below 300 yuan? Billion State Power Network opened the domestic VR head-to-head representative of the brand's storm mirror Tmall flagship store, found that its two 79 yuan products monthly sales of nearly 3,000 units, and the price of 199 yuan 4 generation products monthly sales of about 1,400 units. It can be clearly seen that the user is sensitive to the price of the VR head. The monthly sales volume of the five generations of five or six hundred is only more than 100. According to Tmall sales data, the monthly sales volume of Stormwind's flagship store should not exceed 20,000 units.
In addition to the Tmall flagship store, Storm Mirror also has offline channels and Taobao distribution channels. Officials have said that the number of offline stores will reach 20,000 this year (the number of stores opened in May is 5,000). By the end of this year, the total number of hardware devices will be sold at 5 million units, and the number of VR users in China will reach 10 million. In June of this year, Storm Mirror revealed that its sales scale was only 1.5 million units. "VR hardware began to scale up this year, and the investment in the channel is large, the purpose is to seize the user's mind first." A VR industry practitioner told Yibang Power Network, everyone is fighting speed, they do not want to sell equipment. Make money.
Domestic VR head market is so, what about foreign countries?
Steam, the world's largest game store, has reached 125 million active users, while the number of online users has reached 13.48 million. HTC is its partner in VR. The consumer version of the virtual reality helmet HTC Vive is scheduled to be scheduled on the Steam platform. After half a year, the sales volume is only about 80,000 units.
The situation with Oculus, which was acquired by Facebook, is even worse. According to Steam recently released a user report, in the VR section, Vive devices accounted for 66% of the total, which is twice that of the Oculus Rift, which means Oculus The shipments for half a year may be only four or five thousand.
Some commentators believe that this may not be an ideal number. A striking contrast is that the first iPhone, which also opened up new markets, reached 1 million sales in 74 days when it went public in 2007.
In fact, some media predict that global VR equipment shipments are not high. IDC's latest report predicts that global VR equipment shipments will exceed 9 million units in 2016, and by 2020, VR equipment shipments are expected to reach 64.8 million units.
In this regard, the above-mentioned VR senior practitioners said that the speed of VR hardware devices accepted by users is not as good as that of smart phones. One of the core reasons is that the user experience of low-priced products is very poor, and the products with prices of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands are not. Accepted by the general public. "Apple's mobile phone products are mature, and smart phones have been recognized by the market before the launch. Therefore, the sales of VR hardware and Apple mobile phones are not comparable. When the computer was first introduced, the sales volume was lower than VR?"
Chain interaction He Zhitao also believes that although VR can only bring about 20 to 30 million sales per year to its company, it is very good to improve the user experience. "Experience is the most important thing. We value the complaints of users. In the next two years, only the user experience can be solved, so that users can truly accept VR."
Compared with saving money to buy hardware products, users are more inclined to experience the store experience offline. Since the second half of last year, virtual reality experience stores have appeared in shopping malls, theaters, and plazas. Tickets generally cost tens of dollars.
In this regard, Yu Hai, executive director of Tencent Investment, believes that the key issue that the VR industry needs to solve now is content. The offline experience store has greatly promoted the popularity of VR and market education. Before the popularization of computers, there were Internet cafes in the streets and alleys of the city. Nowadays, VR is also the same. There is a special VR experience hall to open. This will greatly help the ecological construction of the whole field. First, more users can try to feel this. Changes in the industry will also drive more content developers willing to come in and show their content."
Will VR be more than a smartphone in the future?
Huang Xiaojie, CEO of VR hardware brand Storm Mirror, said that although many users now think that mobile VR experience is not good, mobile VR will have a market share of more than 90% in the future. "PC VR is the market for niche gamers, and mobile VR will be the next generation Internet."
In line with Huang Xiaojie's point of view, Google Ventures partner Joe Krauss said that although virtual reality is first used in computer games, in the long run, mobile virtual reality is the future development because it is more Easy to develop.
In addition, Huang Xiaojie also expressed optimism about the future market. Benefiting from multiple factors such as Moore's Law and the maturity of R&D, the price of mobile head display will drop to 100-200 yuan in one or two years (specifically, VR glasses with gyroscopes and simple input peripherals such as handles and connected to mobile phones). Corresponding to this price, he believes that China's VR market is at least 100 million users within three years.
Simon Pressey, director of sound effects at Crytek, a well-known European game developer, also predicts that VR will penetrate the mass market in the next three to five years as the performance of VR technology increases rapidly and continuously. In the short term, he believes that by the end of Christmas this year, Oculus and HTC will make more casual users start using VR helmets through some measures.
Wang Congqing, general manager of HTC VR China, holds similar views. He believes that applications in all fields will eventually be VR, and VR has a wider price range advantage over mobile phones, so he believes that VR equipment sales will surpass mobile phones within five years. "Smartphones have reached a bottleneck, and VR will surpass smartphones in the next five years."
Moreover, Wang Congqing is very certain that the return rate of investing in VR companies is higher than that of the Internet. “In the PC hardware field, the return rate of leading companies to investors is about 100%, the return rate of Internet companies to investors is about 200%, and the return rate of mobile Internet companies to investors is 300%~ 500%. This trend shows that VR may have a higher rate of return than mobile phones, the Internet, and PCs."
Is China's VR market bigger than Europe and America?
Capital market and VR manufacturers are so optimistic about the virtual economy, what is the role played by China in the VR era? Will it be as far away as Europe and America in the e-commerce field?
Brain WaddleWaddle, president of global game company Virtuos Global Sales Market, believes that the VR market is currently in the early stages of development, and the profit model is still unclear. Compared with European and American countries, China has more opportunities in the VR market.
Guido Voltolina, head of Nokia's technology capture technology, also said, "China's VR market has great potential. In the first half of next year, China's VR market will remain at the same level as North America even if it does not exceed North America. China's production and investment in VR content, and the entire ecosystem. The layout of the VR industry is almost crazy."
According to relevant data, in the first quarter of this year, a total of 1.7 billion US dollars was invested in the VR/AR field, of which nearly 1 billion US dollars came from China. More than half of this $1 billion is spent on VR/AR companies abroad. The Canadian VR provider Archiact, including the Sanqi mutual entertainment investment, The Void theme park invested by Shanda Network, and the VR virtual role provider PLFX of Yujiu Games Investment.
And the nearly $800 million Magic Leap is seen as a benchmark for VR financing. Magic Leap is a well-known AR startup in the United States. In February of this year, Magic Leap announced that it had received $793.5 million in financing, including Google and Alibaba.
Chinese giant Internet companies and technology companies have bet on VR. Alibaba Ma Yun said that Ali is constantly using VR technology to expand market boundaries. The biggest significance of the launch of VR Shopping Buy+ is not to provide a fresh technology experience, but to open up a new e-commerce model. In addition, Alibaba is expected to launch VR Pay at the end of September this year to complete the VR closed-loop shopping experience.
Tencent's strategic layout of VR is based on five major areas of game, video, social, live broadcast and map. This has strong correlation with Tencent's core business. Among them, Tencent did not mention e-commerce in the VR strategic layout, which is quite different from Alibaba's vigorous launch of Buy+ and the creation of a Taobao in the VR industry.
Tencent Ma Huateng is also constantly on the VR platform. In March of this year, he said that Tencent has games and video resources, including sports live broadcasts, concerts, etc., and there are a wide range of VR applications in the future. At the Wuzhen World Internet Conference, Ma Huateng asked everyone at the end of his speech: "WeChat has been very successful in the past five years. What products will subvert it in the future? What will the next generation information terminal be?" He then answered himself It is VR.
In addition to Alibaba and Tencent invest heavily in VR, other Internet companies are not afraid to lag behind in VR layout. For example, Jingdong established the Jingdong PCL Lab (Cognitive Sensing Lab) in mid-2015, and revealed that VR products were launched in September. In addition, Youku and iQiyi also released the VR strategy. LeTV also claimed to establish a VR ecosystem to achieve multi-dimensional, cross-industry and all-environmental VR development.
NetEase Ding Lei is blunt to miss VR. He has invested in tens of millions of VR\AR labs in Beijing, Hangzhou and Guangzhou, and also established "VR Dream Lab" in conjunction with Tsinghua University and AMD.
A VR investor said that China's VR development is at the same starting line as Europe and the United States, and more participants have more markets. "Now the industry is getting faster and faster, and the industry giants are afraid to miss the next runway. Under this kind of mentality, every company wants to run, so VR is higher than the Internet. The giants are all up. With a global layout, can small businesses have opportunities?"
In this regard, Sony China President Tim Tianwu said that he is more interested in the opportunities created by small companies in the VR field than big companies. “Small teams can often form a typhoon in the industry because of their creativity and execution. There are many such gems in the world.â€
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