Outside robots chanting

It is reported that China's home appliance maker Midea Group is close to making an offer for German industrial robot manufacturer Kuka AG.

1. Global mergers and acquisitions break the low-end lockup landscape

Participating in the global vertical division of labor system is a successful experience in the rapid development of China's manufacturing industry over many years. China's land factor cost embedded in the global value chain of industrial robots is facing the risk of low-end lock-in. In recent years, Chinese companies have acquired giants of foreign industrial robots. The model of “foreign technology + Chinese market” provides a shortcut for Chinese industrial robots to climb up to the high end of the global value chain. The U.S. acquisition of the world-leading robot servo system KUKA has a milestone significance. If the recently introduced "Robust Industrial Development Plan" provides policy guidelines for the development of China's robot industry, then the US acquisition of KUKA will provide development for the development of China's robot industry. path.

2. The proportion of robot product upgrades continues to climb

Using the statistical data of the export volume and export volume of different types of industrial robots from different countries in the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, the national industrial robot upgrade index for 2007-2014 was compiled. This index is essentially the proportion of exports of robots whose prices have risen in each country to the total volume of robotic industry exports. Therefore, the range of this index is [0, 1]. The larger the value, the more products that are upgraded and the value is 0. Indicates no product upgrade. A value of 1 indicates that all products are being upgraded. From the perspective of the upgrade index, the gap between China and other four countries in the proportion of product upgrades has been small, and even exceeded some countries. The main reason is that the increase in labor costs in China has stimulated the development and application of industrial robots, which in turn promotes products. upgrade. In Germany, Japan, and the United States, where the industrial robot technologies are more mature, their product upgrade index has gradually declined. This is caused by the lowering of the production cost due to breakthroughs in technical barriers by countries such as Korea, China, and other major industrial robots. The mature technology breakthroughs in Japan and the United States are more difficult. The market share of KUKA, FANUC, YASKAWA, and ABB declined from 60% before 2013 to about 50% in 2014, which confirms this conclusion.

3. Domestic robot competition landscape will be rewritten

The top ten domestic control systems are: GuSheng, Advantech, Raytheon Intelligence, Eston, NST, Kapno, Guangzhou CNC, Huichuan Technology, Huazhong CNC, and Invintan Intelligent (mostly non-listed companies) In 2015, its market share was nearly 14%. While only KUKA has a market share of 14%, the acquisition of the United States is expected to enable KUKA to use the United States in the country's huge sales channels to further expand market share. In terms of the supply of domestic robots, foreign robot manufacturers (FANUC, YASKAWA, KUKA, ABB, etc.) are currently the main players, and domestic domestic product market share is less than 10%. In order to deal with KUKA's expansion in China, it is worth looking forward to other world robot giants looking for partners.

Xiao Bian thinks that industrial robots represent the highest achievement of mechatronics. The core technology of foreign industrial robots is already very mature, but the domestic market is late and the core technologies are generally in R&D or not yet in mass production capacity stage. We follow three Mainline recommended investment strategy:

First, start with the independent research and development of listed companies. The future development direction of China's industrial robot market must be the localization, branding, high-precision, and high quality of core technologies. The core components of industrial robots account for about 70% of the total cost, while the main profit of the industry is concentrated on core technologies with higher specialization and higher barriers, so the market has great potential in the future. We recommend companies that are in the forefront of the industry in independent research and development: Eston, Huazhong CNC, and Huichuan Technology.

Second, start with the degree of industrialization of listed companies. The industrial robot industry belongs to the high-tech industry, with high barriers to entry, high R&D costs, long research and development cycles, and strong brand and scale effects. Therefore, industrialization and large-scale production operations are critical to the profitability of a company. important. From the above logic I recommend: Robot, Eston, Boss shares.

Third, starting from the joint venture of listed companies. Industrial robots require high-precision, high-stability, and high-responsive hardware and software support. As China's independent R&D technology and equipment are still relatively lacking, there will be a longer period of import substitution in the future. Therefore, M&A or excellent companies that have strategic cooperation with foreign advanced equipment manufacturers become our recommended targets: Shanghai Mechatronics, Qinchuan machine tool.