As Q2 global semi-conductive silicon sales continued to grow by 9.4% quarter-on-quarter, Malcolm Penn, founder of UK-based market analysis firm FutureHorizons, increased semiconductor sales by 31% (predicted in May) to 36% in 2010, but Penn put The forecast for 2011 is 28% growth, down 14%.
Penn stressed that the reason for the change is that the negative impact of the crisis has ended in the semiconductor market, so it is realigned to the speed of recovery. The recovery in electronics and semiconductors was faster than expected, and it has been stretched in place in 2010, so it will enter normalcy by 2011. This also explains why the market will be so high in 2010. Penn repeatedly stressed that the change was purely mathematical, rather than analytical.
When FutureHorizons organized this year's mid-year semiconductor market forecast, Penn believes that the industry has only three quarters of suspension, rather than a boom-bust recession (the editor believes this view is unique, but not necessarily correct), and reiterates its The view is through a series of market index charts, including the 2008 Q4 and the first half of 2009. Therefore, its view is that 2009 is only a pause, not a rebound, and 2010 is a restart, until 2011 back to the normal trajectory.
It pointed out that the CEOs of most chip factories could not correctly understand the current situation, because the traditional chip industry trends make them always feel that risks will come at any time. Penn also believes that the experience of the past industry is always creepy, so it will always respond quickly, such as cutting spending or stopping the implementation plan.
From the market situation, 2010Q3 is very similar to 2008Q3. In addition to the industry has reduced its 14% chip production capacity, many other industrial indexes are normal. Penn said it expects to push the ASP of the chip soon to make the chip maker's profitability improve, but it will be annoying for chip buyers.
Penn expects the 2010Q2 global semiconductor market to grow by 8.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, in line with independent analyst Mike Cowan's recent results of 9.4%. However, from the growth rate of Q2/Q1 this year, 9.4% and 2.9% have exceeded the average of the past 10 years, which fully reflects that the industry is on the rise.
Penn believes that the Q3 growth rate is 5-10% and the Q4 growth rate is 2-3%. Therefore, the low value estimate, the semiconductor market in 2010 can reach 299.9 billion US dollars, the growth rate is 32.5%. And Penn's high The value is estimated to be $311.4 billion in sales, with a growth rate of 37.6%.
Penn said that even if the situation deteriorates in the second half of the year, the market will have a 30% growth this year. The semiconductor market is expected to exceed the $300 billion mark by the end of 2010 and is expected to grow by 14.2% in 2011.
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